Assessing and forecasting of groundwater level fluctuation in Joypurhat district, northwest Bangladesh, using wavelet analysis and ARIMA modeling

Groundwater resource plays a crucial role for agricultural crop production and socio-economic development in some parts of the world including Bangladesh. Joypurhat district, northwest part Bangladesh, hub, is entirely dependent on groundwater irrigation. A precise assessment prediction level (GWL) can assist long-term resources (GWR) management, especially drought-prone regions. Therefore, this study was carried out to identify trends magnitude GWL fluctuation (1980–2019) using modified Mann–Kendall test, Pettitt’s Sen slope estimators Time-series data analysis performed forecast from 2020 2050 Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The findings MMK test revealed significant declining trend GWL, turning points were identified years 1991, 1993, 1997, 2004, respectively. Results also indicate that rate varied 0.104 0.159 m/year average declination 0.136 during 1980–2019. outcomes wavelet spectrum depicted two periods Khetlal Akkelpur upazilas. results obtained optimal model ARIMA (2, 1, 0) will decline at depth 13.76 m 2050, be 0.143 area. predicted showed similar tendency suggesting disquieting condition, particularly upazila. This research would provide practical approach could help decision-makers implement GWR management